Conclusion
This research has provided a large qualitative insight into the factors that determine who owns and uses an electrical bike. The research offers many leads for policy and further research. The available quantitative information is not sufficient to have a quantitative picture of the ownership and use of the E-bike. Therefore, not all research questions could be answered quantitatively.
Aim of the research
At the end of the nineties the electric bicycle was successfully introduced at the Dutch market for the first time. An electric bicycle assists the biker with an electric motor. In the early years this bike was popular among elderly people or among people who are physically disabled. In recent years also other groups of people use the electric bicycle, like commuters.
The Dutch sales figures have strongly been growing over the last five years. In 2009 more than 150.000 new electric bicycles have been sold in the Netherlands. In 2010 there was a small drop in sales figures. The exact number of new electric bikes sold in 2010 is not known yet, but it will be about 140.000.
This increase in ownership (and also the use) of the electric bicycle could imply a change in the transport demand (the number of trips someone makes) and in the travel mode choice (the means of transport someone chooses). The “Stadsgewest Haaglanden” is a cooperation of nine communities in the The Hague region. One of the goals of the Stadsgewest consists of stimulating the bicycle use in the region. Regarding the development in sales figures of electric bicycles, the question of the Stadsgewest is whether or not the electric bicycle can contribute to an increase in the number of bike trips in the region. If the research project shows that the electric bicycle can contribute to that goal, the Stadsgewest wants to know how the use of the electric bicycle can be stimulated and which effects that will cause.
The research goal is therefore formulated as:
Getting insight in the influence of the development of the ownership and
use of an electric bicycle on the transport demand and the travel mode
choice.
Research plan
When doing research on the ownership and use of the electric bicycle, it is essential to determine exactly what is meant by the term “electric bicycle”. First it was investigated what an electric bicycle is and what the main characteristics and properties are.
Subsequently a literature search indicated how the transport demand and travel mode choice are positioned within the traffic and transport system. Also literature search revealed what is known already about ownership and use of the electric bike and its impact on traffic and transport system. It appeared that the present user groups of the electric bike are largely known. However, it is not totally clear why these user groups own the electric bike and use it. So, there is lack of knowledge on the factors that explain why someone owns and uses an electric bike.
This lack of knowledge was filled firstly via interviews with experts to investigate which factors contribute to the ownership and use of the electric bike.
After having established the relevant factors, mathematical models were designed to quantitatively express the ownership and the use of the electric bicycle. Next it was deduced from these models in how far the earlier found factors play a role in the ownership and use of the electric bicycle.
The electric bicycle
Several variants of the electric bicycle are available. An important distinction can be made between the Pedelec (Pedal Electric Cycle) and the E-bike. The Pedelec is a bike with an engine that only functions when the biker puts some force on the pedals. When the velocity of the Pedelec raises above 25 km/h the engine turns off. The traffic rules in The Netherlands are the same for the Pedelec and the normal bike.
The E-bike doesn’t necessarily need pedaling. The engine can be turned on with a switch on the steering wheel, without the necessity to pedal. According to Dutch law, the E-bike is a motorized vehicle that needs to be insured.
The majority of the electrical bikes in the Netherlands consists of the Pedelec.
The sales figures are based on the sales of the Pedelec. That’s why this research is limited to the Pedelec. The terms “E-bike” or “electrical bike” in this report refer to a Pedelec.
Literature on ownership and use of electric bicycles
There is little scientific research on the ownership and the use of electric bikes. The scarce data that are available only allow conclusions on the major user groups. These are:
• Elderly (60 years and over) using the bike for recreation
• Commuters using the bike for commuting
• Disabled people who cannot use a normal bike, but can use an electric one.
There is a lack of knowledge about the factors determining why someone owns and uses an electric bicycle.
Ownership factors of the electric bicycle
By using interviews it was investigated which factors play a role in the ownership of the electrical bike. Subsequently a regression model was made to give quantitative insight, displaying a statistical relationship between these factors and the ownership of an electric bicycle. A dataset was used from 2007 that was compiled from a market research on electric bikes. Not all factors could be related to the data and consequently not all factors were quantified.
The model analyses showed six factors to be related with the ownership of an electric bike. These are listed below. The percentage behind each factor indicates which proportion that factor has in the model prediction (indicating the importance of that factor). The factors are:
• Knowing someone who owns an E-bike (41%)
When someone knows another one with an E-bike, then the chances are that this person also owns an E-bike. This is strongly the case when they live in the same household.
• Age (16%)
The older the person, the higher the probability of possessing an E-bike
• Travel distance / Commuting distance (16%)
The larger the number of biker kilometers, the larger the probability that someone owns an E-bike.
• Physical condition (15%)
The healthier a person is, the lower the probability for owning an E-bike
• Gender (9%)
Women possess an E-bike more often than men.
• Attitude for active life (3%)
Less active people are more likely to own an E-bike.
Important factors that could not be quantified due to the lack of necessary data, but that are influencing the ownership of an E-bike are (based on the interviews):
• Etnicity
E-bike owners are almost always autochthone
• The image that an E-bike is for elderly
Someone who considers an E-bike as a bike for elderly is less likely to own an E-bike
• Reason for transport
The E-bike is mainly used for recreation or commuting
• Price of the E-bike
The higher the price, the less likely that people will buy an E-bike
• Design of the E-bike
The more the design is suited to the target group, the larger the probability for ownership
• Degree of urbanization
The higher the urbanization degree the less likely the ownership of an Ebike
• The way of transportation
When used to a normal bike, the higher the probability of the ownership of an E-bike.
To say something sensible about future users of an electric bicycle, a model was also made to show a relationship between the factors mentioned and the interest of non-owners in an E-bike. Four factors turned out to show a statistical relation with the interest of having a bike. These are:
• Knowing someone who owns an E-bike (31%)
• Physical condition (27%)
• Age (32%)
• The image that an E-bike is for elderly (10%)
The differences between this model for interest and the model of ownership are that for the model for interest the factors “Travel distance / commuting distance”, “Gender” and “Attitude for active life” turned out not to be significant. In contrast, the “image that an E-bike is for elderly” does play a role for the model of interest.
User factors of the electric bicycle
The factors playing a role in the use of an electric bicycle have been determined also on the basis of interviews with experts. These are the most important user factors:
• Attitude for active life
The more active someone is, the more the use of an E-bike
• Reason for transport
Commuters use the E-bike daily, recreational users use the E-bike only occasional
• Travel distance / Commuting distance
Travels between 10 km and 20 km are more often done with an E-bike than other distances.
• Availability of safe bike parking at the site of destination
When there is a safe parking place at the site of destination, the probability for the use of the E-bike increases.
• Climate / Weather
Nice weather and summer times increase the probability for the use of the E-bike.
• Habit of travel mode choice
Someone uses his way of transportation by habit.
To get insight in how people choose between various ways of transportation, a model for way of transportation was made. This model predicts which way of transportation someone chooses on the basis of the travel time. This model was built on the same dataset as used for the model for ownership.
A logit model was developed for the model for way of transportation, based on the same dataset that was used for the model for ownership. The model shows that for short distances (short traveling times) the bike and the electric bike are preferred above the car and public transportation. For longer distances (longer traveling times) the model predicts the more often use of car and public transport.
It was the intention to get insight with this model into the changing of way of transportation. But the data were not sufficient for that.