Fietsberaad analysed data provided by NS and ProRail. Conclusion: bicycle travel to train stations is indeed growing apace. Between 2002 and 2005 the number of bicycle trips in transport to the station has continued to grow. The major impetus behind this increase is the growth in train use, caused in part by an increase in the student population. The number of train trips has been increasing by an average of 1,8% annually over the past few years. On balance almost all new train passengers reach the station by bicycle or on foot. Bus, tram, metro and car have not benefited from the growth in train use.
The crucial issue is of course: will this steady increase in demand for bicycle parking facilities continue undiminished in future? This is essential for planning any investments. On the basis of the Fietsberaad analyses no definite pronouncements can be made on this point. An annual growth of approximately 2 to 4% in the number of train passengers appears likely. The question is whether the overwhelming majority of ‘new’ passengers will once again reach the train station by bicycle or on foot. This requires more insight into the relation between (personal) characteristics of train passengers and their bicycle use, in order to allow reliable predictions to be made. Considering the large fluctuations over the past 20 years and the huge amounts of money involved in parking facilities such a predictive model is a justified investment.